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And the Oscar goes to…
Well, they say to manifest your desires. And Milo was robbed!
Nomination robberies aside, it’s a pretty good year for the Best Picture category. Not only did I really want to see all the nominees (and did!), I actually think they are all worthy contenders, with my two least favorite films (Oppenheimer and Maestro) still earning a solid three stars in my scoring system.
In fact, I was so excited about this year’s crop of nominees I couldn’t resist creating an Oscar menu even though I have abandoned my annual tradition of hosting an Oscar dinner and pool. The menu I created reflects my New England and Polish roots and was inspired by the nostalgia I found in many of my favorite films of 2023.
Oscar Menu 2024
Specialty Cocktail
in honor of American Fiction, The Holdovers, and Maestro
“The New Englander”
(aka The “Masshole”)
rye, apple cider, brandied cranberries, maple syrup, lemon juice
Main Course
in honor of Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer
“Mushroom Clouds in an O-Sage Sky”
(uszka on a bed of wild mushrooms cooked with butter, fresh sage, and apple & sage sausage)
Sides
in honor of Barbie, Past Lives, Poor Things, and Zone of Interest
Cucumber Salad
Kimchi and Sauerkrauts
Pink Horseradish
Dessert
in honor of Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest
“The Sandra Hüller”
(apples hidden in puff pastry topped with a “roof” of whipped cream and three cranberry splatters)
Now, on to the awards!
After watching (and, in many cases, rewatching) all ten films nominated for Best Picture as well as other nominees and contenders,* I hereby present my wish list for tonight’s awards. If you know me at all, you know I love both an underdog and a surprise win so my fondest wish for the night is for a couple of dark horses, especially Anatomy of a Fall, to steal away with some of the eight predicted awards for Oppenheimer. While I thought Oppenheimer was perfectly fine, I do not think it is a significantly better film than most of the other nominees and I do not think it should be the “sure thing” it seems to be in many of these categories. In any case, I’m really glad it won’t come close to a clean sweep.
Ultimately, as always, I’m simply rooting to be surprised in practically any category whatsoever.
With that said, and based on what I’ve seen, here is what or who the oddsmakers think will win today, what or who I would like to see win, and, in some categories, those I feel should (or shouldn’t) have been nominated. As always, if I propose a “new” nomination, I take a current nominee off the list: This doesn’t necessarily mean the person or film is undeserving (though it can), but it’s easy to say that so-and-so should have been nominated when the reality is that there are only five slots to fill.
Best Picture
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should have been nominated: All of Us Strangers
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Maestro
I really do think we were blessed this year in terms of nominees. I’m not even sure which film I would pick myself if I were really voting. In the end, I realized I most want Anatomy of a Fall to win as it managed to captivate me both in the theater and at home despite its long running time. It seems many others agree—it’s the nominee with the highest Rotten Tomatoes score and has the same rating as Oppenheimer on Letterboxd. I also think it’s the only film at this point that has a chance of toppling Oppenheimer since it really seems to have the awards mojo of late. (Yes, I know it’s virtually impossible odds-wise.) Finally, I would have liked to have seen All of Us Strangers in the mix. Even though I admire the risk-taking of Maestro, it was a bit of a mess.
Directing
Will win: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Should win: Justine Triet for Poor Things
Should have been nominated: Greta Gerwig for Barbie
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon
If film directing is the process of successfully bringing to life the creative vision of a film, I don’t see how Greta Gerwig is not in the mix for Barbie here. This was made even clearer to me on rewatch. There were just too many times when I was watching both Oppenheimer and The Zone of Interest where I was not convinced that the director had made the right choice in crafting the artistic and dramatic elements of the movie. And, while I thoroughly enjoyed Poor Things in the theater, it was one of the few films whose score did not improve for me on rewatch. I’d give this one to Triet, if only for the incredible performances she got out of her actors.
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: American Fiction
Should win: Barbie
Should have been nominated: Are You There God? It’s me, Margaret.
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Oppenheimer
As often seems to happen, the writing awards are somewhat up for grabs. The oddsmakers give it to American Fiction but both Oppenheimer and Barbie are close behind. I think I would put my money on Barbie because it is a brilliant script and this is one category where the tendency of the Oscars to reward a snubbed director often comes into play. At least I hope so, I think Oppenheimer‘s screenplay is pretty weak, especially when it comes to the two fascinating women he insists on highlighting but does absolutely nothing with.
Original Screenplay
Will win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall
Should win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall
Should have been nominated: Asteroid City
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Maestro
For me, this was between “Past Lives” and “Anatomy of a Fall,” and it was very close. With Anatomy, I loved the structure and teasing out of things, and especially that it doesn’t give you the answer; you, as the audience member, have to decide. For the record, I think she did it.
—Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot #1, Animation Branch, Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot #1
Often this is the weaker of the two writing categories, but this year I think it may be the stronger of the two, as evidenced by the fact that Asteroid City didn’t even make the cut. I didn’t particularly like that film but the originality and quality of the story and dialogue in that script is far better than Maestro, the only film I would be disappointed to see win here.
Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer
Should win: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer
Should have been nominated: Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Bradley Cooper for Maestro
This one is a pretty safe bet. Cillian Murphy’s only real competition is Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers, who I would love to see win, but I’m not really convinced he deserves it over Murphy. In fact, all of these performances were very strong, even if I would have nominated Andrew Scott over Bradley Cooper.
Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall
Should have been nominated: Teyana Taylor for A Thousand and One
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Annette Bening for Nyad
While the general consensus seems to be that Lily Gladstone will win here, Emma Stone is a very close second, and she could certainly pull off an upset because she is fantastic in Poor Things. However, my choice for the win would be Sandra Hüller for her incredible performance in Anatomy of a Fall.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Robert Downey Jr for Oppenheimer
Should win: Ryan Gosling for Barbie
Should have been nominated: Milo Machado-Graner for Anatomy of a Fall
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things
As much as I liked Poor Things very much, I’m afraid Mark Ruffalo was my least favorite thing about it. Milo Machado-Graner in Anatomy of a Fall is one of the best child performances I’ve seen in years. I thought Robert Downey Jr was fine, but if he wins, I think it will be more for his career story than anything. A lot of people could have played his part well whereas I can’t see anyone else being as successful as Ryan Gosling in playing Ken in Barbie.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
Should have been nominated: Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Jodie Foster for Nyad
I think this is probably the biggest lock of the night. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has swept the awards for this category and it’s a film and a role that people love. Both performances in Nyad were worthy of nominations even if the film was rather run of the mill, but I thought Rachel McAdams was pitch perfect as the the mother in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, a film that should have received at least some Academy love.
Cinematography
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Maestro
What can I say? I don’t think it was a particularly interesting year for cinematography as most of it seemed to rely on tricks and ticks that didn’t necessarily serve the story, but Maestro‘s cinematography made the biggest impression on me in the theater (and, yes, I saw Oppenheimer in IMAX).
Film Editing
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should have been nominated: Past Lives or BlackBerry
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Oppenheimer
Honestly, just the fact that Oppenheimer is three hours long because that is the limit for IMAX exhibition should disqualify it from any editing award. But, sigh, I know that Oppenheimer is likely to win. Too bad, because just the fact that Anatomy of a Fall leaves audience members arguing about whether or not she did it tells you what a brilliant job the editor did.
Production Design
Will win: Poor Things
Should win: Barbie
Costume Design
Will win: Barbie
Should win: Barbie
Oddsmakers are saying that both these categories are a contest between Poor Things and Barbie and I agree. However, if I was going to split the awards between them, as the oddsmakers do, I would probably give Production Design to Barbie and Costume Design to Poor Things rather than the other way around. I actually think Barbie deserves the win in both categories, but I won’t be mad if they split.
Original Score
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should have been nominated: The Zone of Interest
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Oppenheimer
As I’ve said before, I don’t often notice score, and when I do, it’s usually for the wrong reasons—it’s annoying, it’s bombastic, it’s intrusive, etc. And that is how Oppenheimer was for me (I almost always hate Nolan’s aural landscapes). While I felt that was partly true about The Zone of Interest as well, I thought it worked better within the context of the film so, personally, I would have nominated it over Oppenheimer.
Sound
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: The Zone of Interest
See above re Nolan. That fact that his films are ever nominated for sound baffles me. The Zone of Interest is all about sound so I am really hoping for an upset in this category, especially given that oddsmakers put it in second place.
Original Song
Will win: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Should win: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
Barbie vs. Barbie. This is another close one, but I think “What Was I made For?” will come out on top, despite the brilliance of “I’m Just Ken” (which I was humming for days). In either case, this will be a well-deserved win for Barbie.
And with that, I think I’ve exhausted the categories I really care (or know) about this year, so I will simply leave you with the odds-on favorites for the final categories:
Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro
Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
International Feature: United Kingdom, The Zone of Interest
Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
Documentary Short Subject: The ABCs of Book Banning
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Animated Short Film: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Live-Action Short Film: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who would you like to see take home one of these golden boys?
The Oscars will air live today at 4pm PT.
*Oscar-nominated features I’ve seen to date: American Fiction, Anatomie d’une chute (Anatomy of a Fall), Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, May December, Nyad, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, Rustin, La sociedad de la nieve (Society of the Snow), and The Zone of Interest
Other 2023 features that I considered for this post: All of Us Strangers; Amanda; Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.; Asteroid City; BlackBerry; Blue Jean; Bottoms; Earth Mama; Flora and Son; A Haunting in Venice; John Wick: Chapter 4; Joy Ride; The Killer; No Hard Feelings; Le otto montagne (The Eight Mountains); Polite Society; Renfield; Roter Himmel (Afire); Showing Up; A Thousand and One; The Unknown Country; Wonka; You Hurt My Feelings. I also watched En corps (Rise), Mountains, Pacifiction, Rye Lane, and Les Trois Mousquetaires: D’Artagnan (The Three Musketeers: D’Artagnan), five 2023 films that were not on the AMPAS “eligible” list.