Oscar Wish List 2023

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Oscars

And the Oscar goes to…

Hey, it’s a wish list! A girl can dream, can’t she?

That’s right, after seeing nine films nominated for Best Picture as well as other nominees and contenders,* I hereby present my wish list for tonight’s awards. Even though I liked both The Banshees of Inisherin and Women Talking very much, I’m rooting for Women Talking because, while I do think it’s just a cut above as a film, it also got thoroughly robbed in terms of nominations, especially in the Directing and Acting categories. Of course, neither of these films have much of a chance against the juggernaut that Everything Everywhere All At Once has become. [Insert sigh here.]

I suppose this is where must confess I have almost gotten to the point where I am actively rooting against Everything Everywhere All At Once in almost every category but Supporting Actor. While I get the love for it as a project, or for its cast, or even as some sort of statement, I think the film itself is a bit of a storytelling mess. That’s right, I said it. And I watched it twice just to make sure I wasn’t missing something. I wasn’t.

In any case, I’m just happy it’s not competing in the same screenplay category as Women Talking. Ultimately, as always, I’m simply rooting to be surprised in practically any category whatsoever. And I mean really surprised, not merely the second-favorite nominee winning over the favorite. As the years roll by, and the award circuit gets bigger and bigger and longer and longer, I become less and less interested in this whole (generally predictable) affair.

With that said, and based on what I’ve seen, here is what or who the oddsmakers think will win tonight (as of last night), what or who I would like to see win, and, in some categories, those I feel should (or shouldn’t) have been nominated. As always, if I propose a “new” nomination, I take a current nominee off the list: This doesn’t necessarily mean the person or film is undeserving (though it can), but it’s easy to say that so-and-so should have been nominated when the reality is that there are only five slots to fill.

Best Picture
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: Women Talking
Should have been nominated: Babylon, RRR, and The Woman King
Shouldn’t have been nominated: All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, and Triangle of Sadness

I know, it’s a lot. But I really think we are going to look back on this year’s crop of nominees and think it was a pretty weak year. Not necessarily for film as a whole (there were a lot of great indie films released in 2022), but for the kind of big spectacle that screams Oscar. Which is almost why I have a hard time saying Women Talking should win the top prize, because I don’t think it necessarily should, even though I think it was the best film of the year and should have gotten far more nominations than it did. If Babylon or RRR were up there, I might pick one of them. It’s just a scale thing. Which is also why I think The Woman King should be in the running. I don’t think it should actually win, but it should have been nominated and gotten a bunch of additional acting and technical nominations. It is certainly a more original and interesting war film than All Quiet on the Western Front, which, in addition to being a pretty poor adaptation of the novel, is contributing absolutely nothing new to the genre. For that reason, I can almost accept Everything Everywhere All At Once winning, which it definitely will, because whatever I may think of its world-building, I can’t say it’s not original.

Directing
Will win: The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should have been nominated: Sarah Polley for Women Talking
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Ruben Ostend for Triangle of Sadness

Given the options, I have to go with The Daniels here. It took incredible direction to make this mess of a script work and get the performances they did, especially under pandemic conditions. Odds-wise, Spielberg is the next most likely winner, but I just don’t see him pulling it off. As always with Spielberg of late, if he had been able to edit himself better, I think The Fabelmans would have ranked much higher for me. And I stand by my initial thought on viewing The Fabelmans in the theater, if it were a similar production but a fictional story about a fictional director, people would be far less impressed with it.

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Women Talking
Should win: Women Talking
Should have been nominated: Fleischer Camp, Jenny Slate, and Nick Paley for Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell for All Quiet on the Western Front

Thank god Everything Everywhere All At Once is not competing in this category. Women Talking actually got me to read the novel it was based on and I came away even more impressed with what Polley did here. However, if she were up for directing, where she would have a real chance despite The Daniels, I might lean toward Glass Onion, which is just a brilliant script (and, frankly, the fact that it competes in the Adapted category simply because there is one crossover character from Knives Out is ridiculous). I’ve heard some rumblings about All Quiet on the Western Front but it is still coming in second with the oddsmakers. After reading so many pro-Polley comments in anonymous Oscar voter articles, I think she takes this one.

I think Sarah Polley should’ve gotten more attention for her directing, and this is a way to reward that, so I’m going with “Women Talking.”

—Voter #1, Member At Large, Anonymous 2023 Oscar Ballots

Original Screenplay
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should have been nominated: Babylon, Decision to Leave, and Kimi
Shouldn’t have been nominated: The Fabelmans, TÁR, and Triangle of Sadness

Given what came out this year, this is a pretty weak crop of nominees in terms of the originality and/or quality of the stories and dialogue in these scripts. In addition to Babylon, Decision to Leave, and Kimi, I could easily see Aftersun, RRR, or The Woman King here instead of what we got. Not that it matters, Everything Everywhere All At Once will win no matter what.

Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Brendan Fraser for The Whale
Should win: Paul Mescal for Aftersun
Should have been nominated: Park Hae-il for Decision to Leave
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Austin Butler for Elvis

This one is a close call. Some oddsmakers have Fraser but others have Austin Butler for Elvis. I’m rooting for Fraser, partly because Elvis was my least favorite film of the year but mostly because I hate this whole trend of giving the award to the best bio-pic performance. Not that Butler wasn’t good, he was, but I would have rather seen Park Hae-il in the mix instead.

Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie
Should have been nominated: Aubrey Plaza for Emily the Criminal and Viola Davis for The Woman King
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Ana de Armas for Blonde and Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans

Yes, Viola Davis was robbed, but not by Andrea Riseborough, who was fantastic in To Leslie. But really, it doesn’t matter, because this is likely going to Michelle Yeoh, who has risen above the other award season front-runner (Cate Blanchett for TÁR) in recent weeks. They’re both fine performances.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once

As much as I’m pretty meh on Everything Everywhere All At Once overall, Ke Huy Quan is doing Tatiana Maslany-level work here. I really bought that his different iterations were different people, which was not really the case with his co-stars. Thankfully, this is probably the biggest lock of the night. I would be happy for Barry Keoghan of The Banshees of Inisherin were he to take it, but I don’t see a scenario where that happens.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: ???
Should win: Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin
Should have been nominated: Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy for Women Talking
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All At Once

Another close one. Given the lack of any of the women from Women Talking here, who I’m sure would take this in a heartbeat, according to the oddsmakers this is actually a three-way race between Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin, Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All At Once, with the latter two being more “Give this woman an Oscar already!” nominations rather than strictly based on performance. So you know who I am rooting for. Plus, I loved Banshees.

Film Editing
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should have been nominated: Glass Onion, Kimi, and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Shouldn’t have been nominated: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, and TÁR

Another Everything Everywhere All At Once lock. Yawn.

Cinematography
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should have been nominated: Babylon, The Batman, or RRR
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Bardo, Empire of Light, or TÁR

This is fairly close between All Quiet on the Western Front and Elvis. I really don’t care about any of the nominees here, although an Elvis win would at least mean that a woman is finally being recognized for Cinematography. There are so many films I’d rather see in the mix, as noted above. It kills me to take Deakins out of the running, but I know he agrees with me, at least about The Batman (and, no, the image below is not upside-down).

Original Score
Will win: Babylon
Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should have been nominated: The Batman and Glass Onion
Shouldn’t have been nominated: All Quiet on the Western Front and The Fabelmans

I must admit that I don’t often notice score. And when I do, it is usually for the wrong reasons—it’s annoying, it’s bombastic, it’s intrusive, etc. And that was mostly true this year. I hated the score for All Quiet on the Western Front, it just hit all the wrong beats at all the wrong times. Babylon‘s score sounded so much like La La Land in parts that it took me out of the film, which is a shame, because I loved the jazz elements. I couldn’t even tell you what the other three here sounded like, although I at least remember liking the score of Banshees. On the other hand, I actually watched for the composer in the credits of The Batman because I really felt the score captured the tone of the film perfectly.

Original Song
Will win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Should win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

This is another close one, but I think “Naatu Naatu” from RRR will take it over “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. First, because it is just so infectious and, second, because it actually plays an integral role in the plot (whereas “Lift Me Up” is your usual over-the-credits fare).

Animated Feature
Will win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Having only seen Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, which is absolutely adorable, I can’t really speak to this category. I’ve heard good things about all these nominees so any of them winning is okay by me. The oddsmakers give the edge to Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.

Production Design
Will win: Babylon
Should win: Babylon

Although Elvis is in the running with the oddsmakers, this is no contest to me.

And with that, I think I’ve exhausted the categories I really care (or know) about this year, so I will just leave you with the odds-on favorites for the final categories:

Costume Design: Elvis
Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis
Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

International Feature: Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front
Documentary Feature: Navalny
Documentary Short Subject: The Elephant Whisperers
Animated Short Film: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Live-Action Short Film: An Irish Goodbye

Who would you like to see take home one of these golden boys?


*Oscar-nominated features I’ve seen to date: Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Causeway, Elvis, EO, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, RRR, Tár, To Leslie, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

Other 2022 features that I considered for this post: A Chiara; After Yang; Bodies Bodies Bodies; Catherine Called Birdy; Corsage; Decision to Leave; Emily the Criminal; Good Luck to You, Leo Grande; Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.; The Lost City; Marry Me; The Menu; Murina; Pearl; Return to Seoul; Saint Omer; The Woman King; X. I also watched The African Desperate; Balle perdue 2 (Lost Bullet 2); L’Événement (Happening); Fire Island; Kimi; Mon Père, le diable (Our Father, the Devil); Prey; and Watcher, eight 2022 films that were not on the AMPAS “eligible” list.

Oscar Nominations: Afterburn

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Oscars

And so the race for the 95th Academy Awards begins.

The nominees for Best Picture are…

All Quiet on the Western Front (9 nominations)
Avatar: The Way of Water (4 nominations)
The Banshees of Inisherin (9 nominations)
Elvis (8 nominations)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (11 nominations)
The Fabelmans (7 nominations)
TÁR (6 nominations)
Top Gun: Maverick (6 nominations)
Triangle of Sadness (3 nominations)
Women Talking (2 nominations)

You can see a full ballot list here.

My first thoughts on this list? Thank god! I may have even been heard yelling that at my screen this morning as I saw that Women Talking had scored a Best Picture nod. It certainly wasn’t supposed to. Like many films featuring women and/or directed by women that are critically acclaimed early in the year, it didn’t seem to be part of the awards conversation. Of course, this is why it only has two nominations, for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay. [Sidenote: I’ve read the novel and agree that it’s a very successful adaptation.] How it didn’t score any acting nominations is beyond me. These women act circles around most of the nominees on this list, which is of course why the film should also have scored a Directing nod, but I digress…

Otherwise, this list was fairly predictable. This is the second year of having a mandated full slate of ten Best Picture nominees so it was really only a question of what would get the final two or three slots. I’m not sure many predicted that Triangle of Sadness or Women Talking would be there, but I’ve seen all of the other films on people’s prediction lists and as part of the general awards conversation. And I’ve heard good things about Triangle of Sadness so I’m not really surprised to see it on this list (although, really, it sounds to me like it’s simply a remake of Male and Female so I’m not sure what the big deal is). We’ll see. Sadly, it is not up for an Indie Spirit award so I don’t have a screener for it.

That is really the other stunner here. Except for All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Triangle of Sadness, I’ve actually already seen all the Best Picture nominees. Which is why I’m a bit sad about this list overall because, frankly, I was fairly meh on most of them. Not that I have many candidates for replacements (I have only seen twenty or so films from 2022), but I have a feeling this will be one of those years where we look back and cringe at the overall list.

That said, I am thrilled that The Banshees of Inisherin managed to snag nine nominations since it is my second favorite film on this list (coming in just under Women Talking in my scoring system). I certainly liked it more than The Fabelmans or TÁR, which I thought were fine, but only fine, and far more than Everything Everywhere All At Once and Elvis, which were my two least favorite films of 2022. I will die on the hill that if The Fabelmans was the exact same film but a complete fiction by a random director it would not have been seen as a Best Picture candidate and, I’m sorry, but Everything Everywhere All At Once is a hot mess of world-building that just didn’t hold my interest. And I even watched it a second time because I was so sure I must have been distracted or something the first time around, but no. The acting is fantastic, however, I grant you that. I certainly don’t begrudge any of the actors their nominations, especially Ke Huy Quan.

The Good
I was really happy to see Paul Mescal from Aftersun get an acting nod. Also, Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin. The men in that film were all pretty much shoe-ins, but her spot was less secure.

I’m also thrilled that “Naatu Naatu” from RRR was nominated for Original Song—it’s a banger—and that Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris was nominated for Costume Design. These were both films I enjoyed quite a bit and it’s always nice when popular non-Hollywood fare gets in somewhere.

Speaking of fun, I would have loved to have seen Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery in Costume Design, but non-period/non-fantasy films so rarely make the cut. I guess I’ll have to be happy it was nominated for Adapted Screenplay, although I’m not quite sure why it was in the Adapted category—is it considered an adaptation of The Last of Sheila? In any case, it’s on Netflix currently if you haven’t seen it yet (as is RRR). Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris is on Peacock premium.

The Bad
As noted above, I think it’s a shame that Sarah Polley wasn’t nominated for Directing. Any other film by a man (about male issues) with women talking and acting up a storm would have been all over these nominations. Exhibit A: Todd Field for TÁR. I would have also liked to have seen S.S. Rajamouli nominated for RRR. That was a hell of a project to undertake and he executed it brilliantly.

The real shocker is the complete absence of Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave in any category. The South Korean film was considered a lock for International Feature and even a possibility for both director and screenplay so I’m not sure what happened there. But I haven’t seen any of the other films on the International Feature shortlist so I can’t really speak to the category’s contenders as a whole. In any case, Decision to Leave is very good and currently streaming on MUBI if you want to check it out.

Other nominations I would have liked to have seen include Jessie Buckley for Women Talking, Aubrey Plaza for Emily the Criminal, Gregory Oke for the cinematography in Aftersun, and Kimi or Prey for just about anything but especially sound design. I also would have loved to have seen almost any of the songs from Marry Me get nominated; however, they weren’t even on the shortlist so I already knew that wasn’t happening. If I ever get around to posting my 2022 music round-up you’ll see that the Marry Me soundtrack was by far my favorite album of the year.

The Ugly

The complete shutout of the actresses in Women Talking is #1 on that list. I can see why it would be hard to figure out who to nominate, but Banshees managed three male acting nods so it’s obviously not impossible.

The inclusion of Elvis on the Best Picture list and the fact that it got seven other nominations is #2. That film was just not good. And it seems many agree. Its rating on Letterboxd is well below the other Best Picture nominees and contenders like Aftersun, RRR, and The Woman King. I’m especially annoyed about Aftersun, mostly because it’s the type of personal story, creatively told, that would have been a shoe-in had it been about a male director’s childhood. It certainly wouldn’t win, but it would be in the mix. It has a higher Letterboxd rating than any of the Best Pictures nominees except Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Finally, Judd Hirsch? Are you fucking kidding me? I want to see a clock on that screentime because I feel it has to be some kind of record.

The Oscar Blitz

So, what will I be running out to see?

Well, nothing, probably. Although I’ve seen a few films in theaters at critic screenings with @RealMelValentin, I’m generally still avoiding being in a crowded, not-sure-how-it-is-ventilated space. Plus, I have a ton of Indie Spirit screeners to get through and I’ll probably prioritize those.

After that, I suppose it will be All Quiet on the Western Front since it is already on Netflix. I quite liked the 1930 adaptation, which won Best Picture, so I’m sure I’ll probably like this version. It’s a great story. I’m also quite interested in Triangle of Sadness, but I’m not sure if I want to pay the current rental price for it. But if it gets re-released in theaters I’ll probably go.

On the flip side, I will definitely not be seeing Avatar: The Way of Water. Mostly because I’ve never seen Avatar and don’t regret that fact in the slightest. I just have zero interest in either. The same might also be said for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which didn’t get nominated for Best Picture but racked up five nominations overall. As I’ve said in the past, I decided to take Marvel at their word and end with Avengers: Endgame and have pretty much checked out of the MCU at this point. I really don’t care that whatever has just been released is “the best Marvel movie ever”—they are really all the same to me and I’ve seen enough of them for a lifetime. If you like these films, I’m happy for you because they do really well at the box office and they are not suffering in the slightest because I don’t have any interest in them.

So what’s left? Fortunately, I have very little remaining to see to cover all nominees in what I consider to be the ten major categories (Best Picture, Directing, Adapted and Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, and the four Acting categories): Blonde; Causeway; Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths; Empire of Light; Living; To Leslie; and The Whale. Unfortunately, I’m not very interested in most of them. Causeway seems rather dreary but is by a female director so I’ll probably get to that one. I have not heard good things about Empire of Light, but it’s lensed by Roger Deakins and the plot seems up my alley so… maybe? Living is an adaptation of Ikiru, and with Bill Nighy, so, again… maybe?

I guess we’ll see what I get to before the awards telecast on Sunday, March 12, but, until then, I’m rooting for The Banshees of Inisherin and Women Talking.

What are your thoughts on the nominations? Feel free to add them in the comments and stay tuned over the next few weeks for my Oscar Blitz series with more details on major categories.

Returning to Manderley 2022

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Games

As promised, here are the answers to the “first lines” challenge I posted last week. Click here if you’d like to try to guess some of the books before reading the answers below.

Last night I dreamt I went to Manderley again.

—The opening of Rebecca (1938) by Daphne du Maurier

1. My name is August Epp—irrelevant for all purposes, other than that I’ve been appointed the minute-taker for the women’s meetings because the women are illiterate and unable to do it themselves.
—Miriam Toews, Women Talking (2018)
[a critically acclaimed 2022 release, directed by Sarah Polley]

2. This is the story of what a Woman’s patience can endure, and what a Man’s resolution can achieve.
—Wilkie Collins, The Woman in White (1860)

3. In the matter of Alvin B. Guy, Judge of Recorder’s Court, City of Detroit: The investigation of the Judicial Tenure Commission found the respondent guilty of misconduct in office and conduct clearly prejudicial to the administration of justice.
—Elmore Leonard, City Primeval: High Noon in Detroit (1980)
[the inspiration for a television miniseries in the Justified franchise, currently in production]

4. Owen used to like to tease me about how I lose everything, about how, in my own way, I have raised losing things to an art form.
—Laura Dave, The Last Thing He Told Me (2021)
[Goodreads Choice Award for Mystery & Thriller]

5. The Old North bell tolls the hour, and I realize that I’ll be late.
—Marie Benedict and Victoria Christopher Murray, The Personal Librarian (2021)
[Goodreads Choice Award nominee for Historical Fiction]

6. Malibu catches fire.
—Taylor Jenkins Reid, Malibu Rising (2021)
[Goodreads Choice Award for Historical Fiction]

7. The enigma arrived in the afternoon post, sealed, smudged, and devastating.
—Kate Quinn, The Rose Code (2021)
[Goodreads Choice Award nominee for Historical Fiction]

8. In which somebody’s night of pleasure ends in a rather unpleasant way, and the platters have to wait a while before returning to their place in the sideboard.
—Maryla Szymiczkowa, Rozdarta zasłona (Karolina and the Torn Curtain) (2016)

9. “I was talking to a woman in Ruskin Court, and she said she’s on a diet,” says Joyce, finishing her glass of wine.
—Richard Osman, The Man Who Died Twice (2021)

10. Rosemary and Guy Woodhouse had signed a lease on a five-room apartment in a geometric white house on First Avenue when they received word, from a woman named Mrs. Cortez, that a four-bedroom apartment in the Bramford had become available.
—Ira Levin, Rosemary’s Baby (1967)
[Edgar Award Nominee for Best Novel]

11. When Captain Roger Angmering built himself a house in the year 1782 on the island off Leathercombe Bay, it was thought the height of eccentricity on his part.
—Agatha Christie, Evil Under the Sun (1941)

12. Once the queen’s head is severed, he walks away.
—Hilary Mantel, The Mirror & the Light (2020)
[Booker longlist; Women’s Prize for Fiction shortlist]

Baker’s Dozen Holiday Bonus: So let me dish you this comedy about a family I knew when I was growing up.
—Rick Moody, The Ice Storm (1994)

Double-Secret-Probation Bonus Round: It was a strange ending to a voyage that had commenced in a most auspicious manner. The transatlantic steamship La Provence was a swift and comfortable vessel, under the command of a most affable man.
—Maurice Leblanc, Arsène Lupin, gentleman-cambrioleur (Arsène Lupin, Gentleman Burglar) (1907)
[the inspiration for the recent French television series Lupin, currently available on Netflix]

Congrats to Teresa who guessed two of these correctly before any hints!

Which one(s) are you kicking yourself over? Which one was easiest? Which one was impossible?

Look for comments on these selections and more in my traditional year-end round-up post at the end of next month.

The Tenth Duel Commandment: The First Lines Challenge

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Challenges, First Lines, Games

As I have done for the past nine Thanksgiving weekends, I hereby present the “first lines” challenge, stolen from James over at Following Pulitzer.

The first rule of Fight Club is: You do not talk about Fight Club. The second rule of Fight Club is: You do not talk about Fight Club.

The most important rule of this game is to rely on your own memory and brain and not to cheat by using Google or another resource, print or online. This includes looking up my recent reading at Goodreads.

I’ll say it again, DO NOT use any other resources other than your own brain and/or the brains of those around you.

So, what’s the game, you say?

Below I’ve posted a list of first lines from books I’ve read (or am reading) this year—your job is to guess the author and title of the work I’ve quoted from.

It is a truth universally acknowledged that a single man in possession of a good fortune must be in want of a wife.

—The opening of Pride and Prejudice (1813) by Jane Austen

Some truths:
• Some of these should be quite easy; others are fairly difficult.
• I’ve used discretion as to what counts as the first line.
• The line may be in translation, my own or another’s work.
• The authors or books are generally well known, have won or been nominated for prizes, have been adapted for the silver screen, or have been otherwise much discussed recently.
• The selections can be from any time period or genre, fiction or non-fiction—what ties them together is that I have read (or am reading) them this year.

If you own a copy of the work, it’s fine to check it before you post it as a guess. Any other reference work or tool, print or online, is strictly forbidden. If it’s driving you crazy and you end up googling the answers, that is certainly understandable, but don’t share your findings with the rest of us, that is unforgivable!

Anybody is welcome to comment and guess and I encourage you to do so since even an incorrect guess may trigger something in someone else’s memory. I may also offer hints in my responses so be sure to subscribe to the comments. Whatever is not guessed outright or crowd-sourced through the comments will be posted on Monday, November 28.

Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.

—The opening of Anna Karenina (1877) by Leo Tolstoy

1. My name is August Epp—irrelevant for all purposes, other than that I’ve been appointed the minute-taker for the women’s meetings because the women are illiterate and unable to do it themselves.

[ETA: This book has been guessed correctly in the comments. Please feel free to add there whether you knew it or not.]

2. This is the story of what a Woman’s patience can endure, and what a Man’s resolution can achieve.

[Hint: The title might lead you to think it’s about one woman, but it’s really about another one… or maybe even two.]
[ETA: This book has been guessed correctly in the comments. Please feel free to add there whether you knew it or not.]

3. In the matter of Alvin B. Guy, Judge of Recorder’s Court, City of Detroit: The investigation of the Judicial Tenure Commission found the respondent guilty of misconduct in office and conduct clearly prejudicial to the administration of justice.

[Hint: You might be “justified” in not getting this if part of the name wasn’t in the first line.]

4. Owen used to like to tease me about how I lose everything, about how, in my own way, I have raised losing things to an art form.

[Hint: This recent novel takes place very close to where I live.]

5. The Old North bell tolls the hour, and I realize that I’ll be late.

[Hint: The setting of this recent release is Princeton, New Jersey, in 1905.]

6. Malibu catches fire.

[Hint: With this first line, you’re halfway there.]
[ETA: This book has been guessed correctly in the comments. Please feel free to add there whether you knew it or not.]

7. The enigma arrived in the afternoon post, sealed, smudged, and devastating.

[Hint: Yes, the setting of this recent novel is what you think it might be based on the first line.]
[ETA: This book has been guessed correctly in the comments. Please feel free to add there whether you knew it or not.]

8. In which somebody’s night of pleasure ends in a rather unpleasant way, and the platters have to wait a while before returning to their place in the sideboard.

[Hint: I read this book in translation, although if you know my full name you might think I wouldn’t need to.]

9. “I was talking to a woman in Ruskin Court, and she said she’s on a diet,” says Joyce, finishing her glass of wine.

[ETA: This book has been guessed correctly in the comments. Please feel free to add there whether you knew it or not.]

10. Rosemary and Guy Woodhouse had signed a lease on a five-room apartment in a geometric white house on First Avenue when they received word, from a woman named Mrs. Cortez, that a four-bedroom apartment in the Bramford had become available.

[ETA: This book has been guessed correctly in the comments. Please feel free to add there whether you knew it or not.]

11. When Captain Roger Angmering built himself a house in the year 1782 on the island off Leathercombe Bay, it was thought the height of eccentricity on his part.

[Hint: I’d say you are more likely to have seen this (probably on the small screen) rather than to have read it.]

12. Once the queen’s head is severed, he walks away.

[ETA: This book has been guessed correctly in the comments. Please feel free to add there whether you knew it or not.]

Baker’s Dozen Holiday Bonus: So let me dish you this comedy about a family I knew when I was growing up.

[Hint: The story related in this novel takes places over Thanksgiving weekend.]

Double-Secret-Probation Bonus Round: It was a strange ending to a voyage that had commenced in a most auspicious manner. The transatlantic steamship La Provence was a swift and comfortable vessel, under the command of a most affable man.

[Hint: The biggest clue to the identity of this one is either the name of the ship in the second line or perhaps the category name itself.]

Please post any guesses below. That way, everyone will be contributing to the challenge in the same place. If you want time to think and don’t want to be spoiled, don’t read the comments below and remember to check back on November 28 for a new post with the answers.

For the nine previous annual challenges, click here.

Good luck!

Oscar Wish List 2022

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Oscars

And the Oscar goes to…

After seeing eight films nominated for Best Picture as well as other nominees and contenders,* I hereby present my wish list for tonight’s awards. Even though I liked both CODA and Dune, I’m rooting for The Power of the Dog because it is frankly just a cut above everything else in this year’s race, both cinematically and thematically. As always, mostly I’m just hoping for one or two surprises, and I think this year we are likely to get them. Lots of categories seems to be up in the air, if not, you know, actually being aired live.

With that said, and based on what I’ve seen, here is what or who the oddsmakers think will win tonight (as of last night), what or who I would like to see win, and, in some categories, those I feel should (or shouldn’t) have been nominated. As always, if I propose a “new” nomination, I take a current nominee off the list: This doesn’t necessarily mean the person or film is undeserving (though it can), but it’s easy to say that so-and-so should have been nominated when the reality is that there are only five slots to fill.

Best Picture
Will win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: The Power of the Dog
Should have been nominated: C’mon C’mon, Pig
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Don’t Look Up, Nightmare Alley

Barring an incredible upset, this is an easy one. Even though the oddsmakers have put CODA on top of late, The Power of the Dog and Campion have been frontrunners all awards season. As stated above, I’m rooting for The Power of the Dog; however, I won’t be sad if Dune picks up a number of technical awards because I do think it was the “spectacle” film of the season.

Directing
Will win: Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Should win: Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Should have been nominated: Siân Heder for CODA
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza

Sorry, PTA, I love you, but it just wasn’t your year. Everything that worked about CODA to make it such a beloved film was due to directorial choices. Siân Heder more than deserves a spot here.

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: CODA
Should win: The Power of the Dog

Although I think the nominees are all very strong in this category, I think CODA will take it simply because it is the best way to reward that film without giving it Best Picture. However, I think that The Power of the Dog is the stronger script.

Original Screenplay
Will win: Belfast
Should win: ???
Should have been nominated: C’mon C’mon and Pig
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Belfast and Don’t Look Up

I have no dog in this fight as I haven’t yet seen most of the nominees. However, since I wasn’t particularly impressed with the two I did see, I would swap them out in a heartbeat for C’mon C’mon and Pig.

Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Will Smith for King Richard
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog
Should have been nominated: Nicolas Cage for Pig
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos

Will Smith seems to be a lock for this one, but I’m still hoping Cumberbatch pulls it out. However, more than that, I would have liked to see Nicolas Cage nominated for Pig.

Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Penélope Cruz for Parallel Mothers
Should win: Kristen Stewart for Spencer
Should have been nominated: Isabelle Fuhrman for The Novice
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos

This category is probably the most up in the air of any of the acting awards. Oddsmakers give it to Chastain but I’ve been hearing of a lot of last-minute support for Cruz so I’ve gone for the upset here. While I think it should actually be Stewart, Cruz does give an exceptional performance so I would be perfectly fine with a win for her. Nothing against Nicole Kidman (or Javier Bardem for that matter), but I have zero interest in Being the Ricardos and something has to go in order to make room for more deserving nominees, in this case, the incredible performance from Isabelle Fuhrman in The Novice.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Troy Kotsur for CODA
Should win: Troy Kotsur for CODA

Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Ariana DeBose for West Side Story
Should win: Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter

I’m not particularly invested in the supporting categories this year, but I must say I am completely at a loss as to why DeBose seems to have a lock in this category. She stood out compared to the leads but that really wasn’t too hard to do. In any case, I will be thrilled if the oddsmakers turn out to be wrong and Dunst manages to snag the win. She deserves it (even though Buckley would probably be my pick).

Film Editing
Will win: ???
Should win: Tick, Tick… Boom!
Should have been nominated: C’mon C’mon
Shouldn’t have been nominated: King Richard

The odds here range from 3.4 to 1 for Dune to 4.5 to 1 for Don’t Look Up and Tick, Tick… Boom!, so it’s really anyone’s game. I think it is likely to go to Dune since the odds seem to lean toward that film sweeping the technical categories, but I wouldn’t be surprised at any of the others winning, except maybe The Power of the Dog. Even though I actually think The Power of the Dog is pretty strong in this category, I suspect many people won’t want to vote for a film so many have called “boring” (I don’t get it myself, but haters gonna hate). If I were voting, I would probably pick Tick, Tick… Boom! since the editing stood out to me as one of that film’s few strengths.

Cinematography
Will win: ???
Should win: The Power of the Dog
Should have been nominated: Spencer or The Harder They Fall
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Nightmare Alley

As with Editing, the odds here range from 3.4 to 1 for Dune to 4.5 to 1 for Nightmare Alley and West Side Story, so it’s really anyone’s game. I have no idea who is going to take this one home. I do know that I found the cinematography of both Petite Maman and Spencer impressive so I would have liked to see Claire Mathon get nominated for one of them. Also, The Harder They Fall looked absolutely gorgeous. I didn’t recognize Mihai Malaimare Jr.’s name, but he lensed both The Master and Jojo Rabbit, which I find intriguing. For me, The Power of the Dog is the clear winner here. There were just so many framing choices I wanted to screencap.

Original Score
Will win: Dune
Should win: The Power of the Dog
Should have been nominated: Spencer, The Harder They Fall
Shouldn’t have been nominated: any of the other three nominees

I must admit that I don’t often notice score. And when I do, it is usually for the wrong reasons—it’s annoying, it’s bombastic, etc. Which is why it was fairly shocking to me that I actually noticed and liked Dune‘s score, since I usually strongly dislike Zimmer’s work. When I watched Spencer last night, at one point I just had to look up who did the music because the mix of classical-sounding and discordant pieces worked so well for its themes. I wasn’t surprised when it turned out to be Greenwood because often when I think a score fits particularly well with a film, as with The Power of the Dog, that has been the case. As I noted in my Oscar Nominations post, The Harder They Fall was robbed in this category.

Production Design
Will win: Dune
Should win: Nightmare Alley

As much as I didn’t ultimately vibe with Nightmare Alley, like with Mank last year, I acknowledge it had fantastic production design. I suspect that if I had seen The Tragedy of Macbeth I might go with that one, but it is hard to say based on the trailer alone.

Animated Feature
Will win: Encanto
Should win: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

This year is probably the first year in the history of forever that I watched all five Animated Feature nominees. I’m not a huge fan of animation, but I had already watched Flee and I recently subscribed to Hulu/Disney+ for the purposes of my Century+ project so I figured why the heck not. Frankly, I don’t get the love for Encanto; it was my least favorite of the five. Raya had a similar (not great) plot, but the animation was stunning. However, neither of these two films, nor Luca, rose above the level of “family film”—perfectly fine if you have kids and need to sit through them, but not something I would seek out on my own. Flee was a fantastic use of animation, but I had some issues with the overall film. My vote would go to The Mitchells vs. the Machines, which was just a cut above the others in terms of plot and characters for me.

And with that, I think I’ve exhausted the categories I really care about this year, so I will just leave you with the odds-on favorites for the final categories:

International Feature: Drive My Car
Costume Design: Cruella
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Original Song: No Time to Die
Sound: Dune
Visual Effects: Dune

Animated Short Film: Robin Robin
Live-Action Short Film: The Long Goodbye
Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul
Documentary Short Subject: The Queen of Basketball

Who would you like to see take home one of these golden boys?


*Oscar-nominated features I’ve seen to date: Belfast; CODA; Don’t Look Up; Drive My Car; Dune; Encanto; Flee; Luca; Nightmare Alley; Parallel Mothers; Raya and the Last Dragon; Spencer; Summer of Soul; The Lost Daughter; The Mitchells vs. the Machines; The Power of the Dog; Tick, Tick… Boom!; West Side Story

Other 2021 features that I considered for this post: Black Widow, C’mon C’mon, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Harder They Fall, The Last Duel, The Matrix Resurrections, No Sudden Move, The Novice, Passing, Petite Maman, Pig, Plan B, Procession, Red Rocket, Shiva Baby, Swan Song, Titane, Zola. I also watched A Chiara, Fear Street Parts 1–3, and I Care a Lot, five 2021 films that were not on the AMPAS “eligible” list.