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And the Oscar goes to…

After seeing all nine films nominated for Best Picture as well as most other nominees,* I hereby present my wish list for tonight’s awards. Even though I liked many of the nominated films, I have to say I’m really rooting for Parasite since it is the first time in perhaps ever that my favorite film of the year even has a chance of winning. As always, mostly I’m just hoping for one or two surprises, especially in the acting categories, which really seem set in stone this year.

With that said, and based on what I’ve seen, here is what or who the oddsmakers think will win tonight (as of last night), what or who I would like to see win, and, in some categories, those I feel should (or shouldn’t) have been nominated. As always, if I propose a “new” nomination, I take a current nominee off the list: This doesn’t necessarily mean the person or film is undeserving (though it can), but it’s easy to say that so-and-so should have been nominated when the reality is that there are only five slots to fill.

Best Picture
Will win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should win: Parasite
Should have been nominated: The Farewell, Hustlers
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Joker

This is really just a hunch. While 1917 is favored to win, with Parasite a close second and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood behind both of them, the Academy loves movies about making movies and both Brutally Honest Oscar Ballots in The Hollywood Reporter picked it as their fave. Really, I’m fine with any of the top three winning.

Directing
Will win: Bong Joon-ho for Parasite
Should win: Bong Joon-ho for Parasite
Should have been nominated: Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Todd Phillips for Joker

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Jojo Rabbit
Should win: Little Women
Should have been nominated: Transit
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Joker

Original Screenplay
Will win: Parasite
Should win: Knives Out

Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Should have been nominated: Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes

Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Renée Zellweger for Judy
Should win: Renée Zellweger for Judy
Should have been nominated: Lupita Nyong’o for Us
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story

Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should win: Joe Pesci for The Irishman

Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story
Should win: Florence Pugh for Little Women
Should have been nominated: Park So-dam for Parasite
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit

Cinematography
Will win: 1917
Should win: 1917

Film Editing
Will win: Ford v Ferrari
Should win: Parasite

Original Score
Will win: Joker
Should win: 1917

Production Design
Will win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Costume Design
Will win: Little Women
Should win: Little Women
Should have been nominated: Dolemite Is My Name, Knives Out
Shouldn’t have been nominated: Jojo Rabbit, Joker

And with that, I think I’ve exhausted the categories I really care about, so I will just leave you with the odds-on favorites for the final few categories:

International Feature: Parasite
Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell
Original Song: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
Sound Editing: 1917
Sound Mixing: 1917
Visual Effects: 1917

Animated Feature: Toy Story 4 or Klaus
Animated Short Film: Hair Love
Live-Action Short Film: Brotherhood or The Neighbors’ Window
Documentary Feature: American Factory
Documentary Short Subject: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

Oscar Statues

Who would you like to see take home one of these golden boys?


*Oscar-nominated features I’ve seen to date: Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Ford v Ferrari, Honeyland, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Judy, Knives Out, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Little Women, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Marriage Story, 1917, Once upon a Time…in Hollywood, Parasite, The Two Popes